AFTER several weeks of electioneering, the opinion polls have barely budged. An average of the last 10 polls has Labour on 33.9%, Conservatives on 33.4%, UKIP on 14% and the Liberal Democrats on 8%. Translate that into seats via Britain's first-past-the-post system and the various models (and betting odds) churn out Conservatives 279, Labour 268, Scottish Nationalists (SNP) 53, LibDems 25, UKIP 3, others 22. (If that splir looks odd, it is because the SNP is sweeping the board in Scotland, taking seats away from Labour.)
To govern with a majority, 323 seats are needed (five Irish nationalists don't take their places). So what would happen on Friday? David Cameron would have the most seats and would be eintitled to have the first go at staying in office. But the current coalition (Cons + LidDems) would have 304. Even adding in 9-10 Ulster Unionists and UKIP (a highly unstable combination on the face of it) gets the right to 316.
A combination of Labour with the various nationalists (Scottish, Welsh, moderate Irish) and perhaps the Green could just make it past 323. So David Cameron could do the maths and resign straight away. But why should he? Labour's leader, Ed Miliband, has
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